Elections and Constituencies
Kent Constituency 1236 - 1832
We are used to the idea of each constituency being of equal size, but this is a comparatively new idea. Before 1832 each incorporated borough returned 2 MPs. Kent had 8 boroughs (Rochester, Maidstone, Canterbury, Sandwich, Dover, Hythe, Queenborough, New Romney), the latter two were "rotten" boroughs - New Romney had only 8 electors! This left the rest of the county, including Hartley, to be represented by 2 MPs. Of course only a tiny fraction of people were entitled to vote. Only male freeholders with land worth 40 shillings per annum could vote. This meant Hartley had only 3 electors
The earliest Parliament is thought to be in 1236 when each shire sent two knights to represent them. It was not until Simon de Montfort's parliament of 1264 that they were required to be elected though. His parliament was also the first to allow boroughs to send 2 MPs too. 15th century returns suggest that elections were held at Rochester or Canterbury. One notable member was Geoffrey Chaucer, author of the Canterbury Tales, who was MP for Kent in 1386. Analysis by Roskell and others suggest that the majority of MPs were middling in wealth, but about a fifth were not particularly wealthy.
For more information, see the Wikipedia page on the Kent Constituency.
West Kent Constituency 1832 - 1885
In 1832 the Great Reform Act remedied the worst abuses of the old system, it was passed in the teeth of opposition which included the Conservatives and the bishops. Overall Kent went from 18 to 16 MPs, but the vast county division was divided into East and West, so representation was slightly improved for Hartley. This Act introduced electoral registers for the first time.
People from Hartley would have to go to Gravesend to vote.
Map showing electoral divisions of Kent 1832
The next boundary changes were in 1867, when the West Kent division was split into West Kent and Mid Kent because of population increases. In addition the Gravesend Borough Constituency was created. Hartley lay at the eastern extremity of the West Kent seat, something of a familiar theme in the years to come. We were still a long way from the modern system.
These early elections were subject to rough and tumble which make modern elections seem fairly tame. At the 1832 election the successful Lib (Liberal) candidate Thomas Rider said he "had been witness to such a system of corruption and intimidation that he was convinced that a full and fair expression of the elective franchise could not be secured without [the secret ballot]", it was said that most voters in Blackheath were intimidated not to vote for him (Liverpool Mercury 28.12.1832, Morning Chronicle 31.1.1833). In the 1859 election the Conservatives were rumoured to be behind a gang of roughs who ran riot in Dartford on election day (Daily News 9.5.1859). The Liverpool Mercury said "The Tories are accused, not only of resorting to all the ordinary agencies and artifices that could possibly be employed at the late election, that is of having used bribery, corruption, intimidation, coercion etc, but of having enlisted .... the lowest ruffians of the prize ring....." (Liverpool Mercury 23.5.1859).
In 1880 three members of the Farmer's Alliance Party from Crockenhill were fined for having a van pulled by an emaciated horse at Sydenham Hill, which they said represented the neglect of farming interests (Lloyds Weekly Newspaper 25.4.1880).
(1) Southwark: Counting the Vote (2) Reading the Result (Illustrated London News 10 April 1880)
West Kent Election Results 1832-1880 | |||
Date | Candidates | Votes | |
18/19 Dec 1832 | Thomas Law Hodges (Lib) Thomas Rider (Lib) Sir William Geary (Cons) | 3,380 3,107 2,488 | New Seat. Hodges & Rider elected (Lib 2) |
22 Jan 1836 | Sir William Geary (Cons) Thomas Law Hodges (Lib) Thomas Rider (Lib) | 2,558 2,093 2,007 | 1 Cons Gain 1 Lib Hold |
7 Aug 1837 | Sir William Geary (Cons) Thomas Law Hodges (Lib) Thomas Rider (Lib) | 3,584 3,334 3,229 | 1 Cons Hold 1 Lib Hold |
12 Mar 1838 (by election) | Sir Edmund Filmer (Cons) Following resignation of Geary | unopposed | 1 Cons hold |
6 Jul 1841 | Viscount Marsham (Cons) Sir Edmund Filmer (Cons) | unopposed | 1 Cons Hold 1 Cons Gain |
25 Apr 1845 (by election) | Col Thomas Austen (Cons) Following elevation of Marsham to Lords | unopposed | 1 Cons hold |
7 Aug 1847 | Sir Edmund Filmer (Cons) Thomas Law Hodges (Lib) Thomas Austen (Cons) | 3,219 3,127 3,082 | 1 Cons Hold 1 Lib Gain |
19 Jul 1852 | Sir Edmund Filmer (Cons) William Masters Smith (Cons) Thomas Law Hodges (Lib) | 3,247 3,159 2,652 | 1 Cons Hold 1 Cons Gain |
19 Feb 1857 (by election) | Charles Wykeham Martin (Lib) Sir Walter Riddell (Cons) | 3,680 3,198 | 1 Lib Gain |
8 Apr 1857 | Charles Wykeham Martin (Lib) James Whatman (Lib) William Masters Smith (Cons) | 3,896 3,578 3,171 | 1 Lib Hold 1 Lib Gain |
9 May 1859 | Viscount Holmesdale (Cons) Sir Edmund Filmer (Cons) Charles Wykeham Martin (Lib) James Whatman (Lib) | 3,796 3,654 3,584 3,460 | Cons Gain (2) |
22 Jul 1865 | Viscount Holmesdale (Cons) William Hart Dyke (Cons) Sir John Lubbock (Lib) William Angerstein (Lib) | 4,133 4,054 3,896 3,861 | Cons Hold (2) |
2 Dec 1868 | Sir Charles Mills (Cons) John Gilbert Talbot (Cons) Sir John Lubbock (Lib) William Angerstein (Lib) | 3,440 3,378 3,323 3,196 | Cons Hold (2) |
9 Feb 1874 | Sir Charles Mills (Cons) John Gilbert Talbot (Cons) Mr A Hamilton (Lib) Mr E Marjoribanks (Lib) | 5,295 5,227 3,391 3,346 | Cons Hold (2) |
15 May 1878 By Election | Viscount Lewisham J Talbot left to fight Oxford University by election | unopposed | Cons Hold |
5 Apr 1880 | Sir Charles H Mills (Cons) Viscount Lewisham (Cons) Henry Mason Bompas QC (Lib) John May (Farmer's Alliance) | 6,113 5,986 4,857 977 | Cons Hold (2) |
Who did people vote for?
We are used to elections by secret ballot, but the secret ballot was not introduced until the Ballot Act 1872. Until then the votes of each person were recorded and would be published in "Poll Books". Public voting also allowed the parties to know hour by hour how they were doing in a poll. The Ballot Act is credited with abolishing the power of landlords to force their tenants to vote for them, for example one of the candidates in 1852 and 1857 was the Conservative William Masters Smith who was the landlord of George Best of Hartley, however as George Best continued to be a member of the Conservative party after 1872 this would suggest he would have voted for Mr Masters Smith anyway.
Dartford Constituency 1885 - 1918
The equal constituency system as we know it was introduced in 1885 when Hartley became part of the new Dartford (North West Kent) constituency
Universal male suffrage and the secret ballot did not stop all malpractices. At the 1886 election, a Dartford Conservative employer was accused of trying to prevent their Irish workers from leaving to vote for the Liberals (Freemans Journal 9.5.1886).
The Liberal Landslide of 1906 did not make many inroads in Kent, but history was made when James Rowlands became the first non-Conservative member for Hartley since the 1885 reforms. He stood as "Liberal-Labour" and in his 1918 election leaflet he still claimed to be that at heart, although by then he ran solely under the Liberal banner.
The Conservatives made strenuous efforts to win the seat back and did so in 1910. It was mentioned that women party workers from the safe seat of Tunbridge Wells were brought to Dartford to help, still a common tactic of the parties. Elections were big spectator events then; thousands were reported to have assembled outside the Dartford Council offices to hear the returning officer declare the result (he would have already announced it to those in the hall). Mr Mitchell is said to have been carried shoulder high by his supporters to the Conservative offices (South Eastern Gazette 1.2.1910). However their success was to be brief, there was a second election in 1910 and James Rowlands was back. It was in those elections that Dartford learned what it was like to be a marginal seat, with visits from leading party members.
(1) James Rowlands (2) William Foot Mitchell
Dartford Election Results 1885-1910 | ||||
Date | Candidates | Votes | Percent | |
4 Dec 1885 | Sir William
Hart-Dyke (Cons) Mr J Ebenezer Saunders (Lib) | 4,488 4,006 | 52.8% 47.2% | New Seat. Cons
win Maj 482 |
7 Jul 1886 | Sir William
Hart-Dyke (Cons) Mr J Ebenezer Saunders (Lib) | 4,198 2,965 | 58.6% 41.4% | Cons Hold Maj 1,233 Swing L>C 11.6% |
2 Feb 1887 (by election) | Sir William
Hart-Dyke (Cons) | Unopposed | ||
8 Jul 1892 | Sir William
Hart-Dyke (Cons) Mr Jeremiah Lyon (Lib) | 5,294 4,722 | 52.9% 47.1% | Cons Hold Maj 572 Swing C>L 10.4% |
18 Jul 1895 | Sir William
Hart-Dyke (Cons) Sir Patteson Nickals (Lib) | 4,693 4,557 | 50.7% 49.3% | Cons Hold Maj 142 Swing C>L 4.2% |
1 Oct 1900 | Sir William Hart-Dyke (Cons) | Unopposed | ||
19 Jan 1906 | Sir William
Hart-Dyke (Cons) James Rowlands (Liberal-Labour) | 6,728 9,532 | 41.4% 58.6% | Lib-Lab Gain Maj 2,804 Swing n/a |
26 Jan 1910 | William Foot Mitchell (Cons) James Rowlands (Liberal) | 9,807 8,990 | 52.2% 47.8% | Cons Gain Maj 817 Swing L>C 21.6% |
14 Dec 1910 | Willliam Foot Mitchell (Cons) James Rowlands (Liberal) | 8,918 9,152 | 49.4% 50.6% | Lib Gain Maj 234Swing C>L 5.6% |
Chislehurst Constituency 1918 - 1948
In 1917 there was a new review of Parliamentary Constituencies. The Dartford seat was made smaller, to become Dartford and Erith. Most of the rural disticts of Dartford and Bromley, including Hartley, went into a new Chislehurst seat. Most of the parties who attended the Boundary Commission Enquiry at Maidstone on 24 July 1917 were happy with the this proposal. Both Conservativea and Labour supported this, however the local Liberals said a Dartford-Erith seat at 103,000 electors would be too large and that a better option would be a seat made up of Dartford and Dartford Rural District. (Gravesend Reporter 28.7.1918)
In 1918 electors were presented with a choice between Conservatives and the National Party, a right wing splinter group from the Conservatives. In the end the election was won by Sir Alfred Smithers. He was a financier with several rail interests including the Grand Trunk Railway in Canada, where there is a town named after him. He was MP until 1922 and from 1924 to 1945 his son Sir Waldron Smithers was MP. The high point for the Conservatives came in 1931 when as "National Government" candidate they won 85% of the vote, Labour chipped away at this in 1935 and Chislehurst was once of the seats that was flipped in the Labour landslide of 1945.
The count at the Dartford by-election 1920
Meanwhile in our old constituency of Dartford, James Rowlands died in 1920 and Labour gained the seat in the resulting by-election. The photo above shows the count, which is little changed today, with four of the candidates anxiously watching as election staff work.
Dartford by-election 1920, address by winning candidate J Mills
Chislehurst Election Results 1918-1945 | ||||
Date | Candidates | Votes | Percent | |
14 Dec 1918 | Sir Alfred Smithers (Cons) Capt A Edmonds (National) | 8,314 2,507 | 76.8% 23.2% | New Seat. Cons win Maj 5,807 |
15 Nov 1922 | Robert Nesbitt (Cons) David Mason (Lib) | 11,801 6,256 | 63.4% 36.6% | Cons Hold Maj 5,545 |
6 Dec 1923 | Robert Nesbitt (Cons) Robert Nevill (Lib) | 9,725 7,806 | 55.5% 44.5% | Cons Hold Maj 1,919 Swing C>Lib 7.9% |
29 Oct 1924 | Sir Waldron Smithers (Cons) John Thomson (Lab) Robert Nevill (Lib) | 14,440 3,757 3,647 | 66.1% 17.2% 16.7% | Cons Hold Maj 10,683 |
30 May 1929 | Sir Waldron Smithers (Cons) James Bateman (Lib) John Thomson (Lab) | 16,909 9.025 5,445 | 53.9% 28.8% 17.3% | Cons Hold Maj 7,884 |
27 Oct 1931 | Sir Waldron Smithers (Cons) W T Colyer (Lab) | 32,371 5,731 | 85.0% 15.0% | Cons Hold Maj 26,640 |
14 Nov 1935 | Sir Waldron Smithers (Cons) W T Colyer (Lab) J A Williams (Lib) | 38,705 12,227 5,238 | 68.9% 21.8% 9.3% | Cons Hold Maj 26,478 Swing C>Lab 11.5% |
5 July 1945 | G D Wallace (Lab) Maj T L Fisher (Cons) E C G Hawkins (Lib) | 25,522 19,243 6,824 | 49.5% 37.3% 13.2% | Lab Gain Maj 6,279 Swing C>Lab 17.5% |
Orpington Constituency 1948 - 1954
The next general review of boundaries had to wait for nearly 30 years by the new Boundary Commission for England which had been established by a 1944 Act of Parliament. Regular reviews of boundaries now became mandatory. Since 1918 the electorate of Chislehurst had increased from 26,801 to 110,000 so it was clear that changes were needed. The Gravesend Reporter of 20 December 1947 announced that as a result of the review, Hartley, along with the rest of the Dartford Rural district was to be moved to Orpington constituency. This was not to the Parish Council's liking as their choices were first Chislehurst and then Dartford. They unanimously passed a motion of objection to be sent to the Home Secretary in February 1948. The following month they had decided Gravesend Constituency was a better choice. However the Orpington proposal was confirmed in July 1948. Later that year the Hartley Conservatives held a farewell party for the Chislehurst prospective candidate, Pat Hornsby-Smith (Gravesend Reporter 9.10.1948).
Hartley may have been in a new constituency but they found themselves with a familiar MP in Sir Waldron Smithers, who had been the MP for Chislehurst from 1924 to 1945. In the boundary review that followed he chose to fight the safer seat of Orpington.
Orpington Election Results 1950-1951 | ||||
Date | Candidates | Votes | Percent | |
23 Feb 1950 | Sir Waldron Smithers (Cons) George Vaughan (Lab) Lady Ruth Abrahams (Lib) | 24,450 14,161 4,523 | 56.7% 32.8% 10.5% | Cons win Maj 10,289 |
25 Oct 1951 | Sir Waldron Smithers (Con) R D Vaughan Williams (Lab) | 27,244 16,241 | 62.6% 37.4% | Cons Hold Maj 11,003 Swing Lab>C 0.6% |
Dartford Constituency 1955 - 1974
Hartley was to remain in the Orpington seat for just the two elections of 1950 and 1951. The Boundary Commission wanted to create a new seat out of Dartford for Erith and Crayford (Times, 20.11.1954), which meant that the Rural District had to move back to the Dartford seat. For once it appears all parties were happy with the boundary change. Orpington Labour Party "wholeheartedly welcomed" the changes to Orpington. The SE Region Conservatives wanted the whole Dartford Rural District put in with Dartford Constituency as they said they look to Dartford not Orpington, and is currently divided between Chislehurst and Orpington seats. Dartford Borough Council agreed, but didn't like the name change to "County Constituency" (done when a seat has a rural component). (Source: National Archives File AF1/311). The changes made the seat a much more winnable prospect for the Conservatives.
For most of this time our MP was Sydney Irving, later Lord Irving of Dartford. He was deputy chief whip (1964-66) and then a Deputy Speaker (1966-70). Richard Crossman's diaries record the vigorous defence he put up for his constituents over the issue of New Ash Green. 1970 was one of those elections where most polls failed to detect a late swing to the Conservatives, so much so that the famous swingometer on the election night coverage had to be amended by hand. Dartford was one of those seats that probably fell at the last minute.
Dartford Election Results 1955-1970 | |||||
Date | Candidates | Votes | Percent | Turnout | |
26 May 1955 | Sydney Irving
(Lab) Peter Walker (Cons) | 25,928 21,730 | 54.4% 45.6% | 81.0% | Lab Hold Maj 4,198 Boundary Changes |
8 Oct 1959 | Sydney Irving
(Lab) Peter Walker (Cons) B C Davis (Lib) | 25,323 24,047 5,881 | 45.8% 43.5% 10.7% | 83.0% | Lab Hold Maj 1,276 Swing Lab>C 3.3% |
15 Oct 1964 | Sydney Irving
(Lab) J J Davis (Cons) M Janis (Lib) | 27,371 22,496 9,047 | 46.5% 38.2% 15.3% | 81.5% | Lab Hold Maj 4,875 Swing C>Lab 3.0% |
31 Mar 1966 | Sydney Irving
(Lab) Peter Trew (Cons) Peter Loftus (Lib) | 29,547 22,638 7,094 | 49.8% 38.2% 12.0% | 80.8% | Lab Hold Maj 6,909 Swing C>Lab 1.7% |
18 Jun 1970 | Peter Trew (Cons) Sydney Irving (Lab) J P Johnson (Lib) | 27,822 27,262 5,453 | 46.0% 45.0% 9.0% | 74.0% | Cons Gain Maj 560 Swing Lab>C 6.3% |
Sevenoaks Constituency 1974 - 1983
From 1974 to 1983 Hartley was part of the ultra-safe Conservative constituency of Sevenoaks. For most of the time our MP was Sir John Rogers, who had been MP since 1950 and had spent most of his career on the backbenches, as one of the "knights of the shires". I am not sure, but I seem to remember that Mr Scanlan, the Labour candidate in 1974 may have run a shop in New Ash Green.
Sevenoaks Election Results 1974-1979 | |||||
Date | Candidates | Votes | Percent | Turnout | |
28 Feb 1974 | Sir John Rodgers
(Cons) Ian Bradley (Lib) J Scanlan (Lab) D J Woolard (Independent) | 29,936 16,223 14,987 754 | 48.4% 26.2% 24.2% 1.2% | 83.4% | Boundary Changes
Cons win Maj 13,713 |
10 Oct 1974 | Sir John Rodgers
(Cons) J Scanlan (Lab) Robert Webster (Lib) | 26,670 15,065 15,024 | 47.0% 26.5% 26.4% | 75.7% | Cons Hold Maj 11,605 Swing C>Lab 1.9% |
5 May 1979 | Mark Wolfson
(Cons) R H Redden (Lab) G Phillips (Lib) M Easter (National Front) | 36,697 14,583 11,839 821 | 57.4% 22.8% 18.5% 1.3% | 79.0% | Cons Hold Maj 22,114 Swing Lab>C 7.1% |
Dartford Constituency 1983 - date
The 3rd periodic review of the Boundary Commission ran from 1976 to 1983. It resulted in the parishes of Hartley, Longfield, Fawkham, Ash cum Ridley and Horton Kirby being moved from Sevenoaks to Dartford constituency.
Boundary changes in 1994 meant that New Ash Green was transferred to Sevenoaks constituency. This had the effect of notionally reducing the Conservative majority in 1992 from 17.2% to 14.7%. Hartley Parish Council then campaigned to be in Sevenoaks too, because they believed (wrongly) that Hartley would be included in plans for the East Thames corridor.
The boundaries were looked at again in 2005. As well as looking at population changes, the commission had to consider recent changes to local government boundaries, which meant for example Hartley and Hodsoll Street ward was split between two constituencies. This time Hartley's local Conservatives made cause with Labour to favour a move to Sevenoaks Constituency. The national Conservative party argued for Hartley to remain in Dartford. Following a 5 day public enquiry held in Ashford the chairman of the enquiry recommended that Hartley remain in Dartford constituency, partly because it would be the minimum change option and partly because evidence from Dartford Borough Council and others that Hartley has more in common with Dartford than Sevenoaks. He particularly praised Dartford Borough Council's submission as a model for others to follow. Further details and a transcript of the public enquiry can be found at the archived version of the Boundary Commission's website.
Election leaflets 2005
Dartford is officially the country's "bellweather" seat, in that it has the longest record of being won by the party that wins the election nationally since 1964. In truth for many years the seat appears to be slipping away from Labour. The party does not need to win Dartford to win the General Election. The 12% swing required for Labour to take the seat now would give them a 200 seat majority in the House of Commons if repeated nationally.
In the 2017 election both Labour and Conservatives increased their share of the vote, thanks to the collapse of the UKIP vote. Their vote in Dartford and Gravesham appears to have split roughly 2-1 in favour of the Conservatives (although this may be disguising switchers from Conservative to Labour). In 2019 the Brexit party agreed not to stand candidates against sitting Conservative MPs, the result appears to have been that the UKIP vote transferred to the Conservatives, while Labour lost some support to the Liberal Democrats. The net result was an increase in the Conservative vote.
Dartford Election Results 1983-2017 | |||||
Date | Candidates | Votes | Percent | Turnout | |
9 Jun 1983 | Bob Dunn (Cons) D Townsend (Lab) J Mills (Lib/Alliance) A H Crockford (Fancy Dress) G E Nye (National Front) | 28,199 14,636 11,204 374 282 | 51.6% 26.8% 20.5% 0.7% 0.5% | 76.4% | Boundary Changes Cons Win Maj 13,563 |
11 Jun 1987 | Bob Dunn (Cons) B J Clarke (Lab) M G Bruce (SDP/Alliance) Keith Davenport (Fancy Dress) | 30,665 15,756 10,439 491 | 53.5% 27.5% 18.2% 0.9% | 79.0% | Cons Hold Maj 14,929 Swing Lab>C 0.6% |
9 Apr 1992 | Bob Dunn (Cons) Howard Stoate (Lab) Peter Bryden (Libdem) A Munro (Fancy Dress) Angela Holland (Natural Law) | 31,194 20,880 7,584 262 241 | 51.9 34.7 12.6 0.4 0.4 | 83.1% | Cons Hold Maj 10,314 Swing C>Lab 4.4% |
1 May 1997 | Howard Stoate (Lab) Bob Dunn (Cons) Dorothy Webb (Libdem) P McHale (BNP) Peter Homden (Fancy Dress) James Pollitt (Christian Dem) | 25,278 20,950 4,872 424 287 228 | 48.6% 40.3% 9.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% | 74.6% | Lab Gain Maj 4,328 Swing C>Lab 12.8% |
7 Jun 2001 | Howard Stoate (Lab) Bob Dunn (Cons) Graham Morgan (Libdem) Mark Croucher (UKIP) Keith Davenport (Fancy Dress) | 21,466 18,160 3,781 989 344 | 48.0% 40.6% 8.5% 2.2% 0.8% | 61.9% | Lab Hold Maj 3,306 Swing Lab>C 0.5% |
5 May 2005 | Howard Stoate (Lab) Gareth Johnson (Cons) Peter Bucklitsch (Libdem) Mark Croucher (UKIP) Michael Tibby (New England) | 19,909 19,203 5,036 1,407 1,224 | 42.6% 41.1% 10.8% 3.0% 2.6% | 63.2% | Lab Hold Maj 706 Swing Lab>C 3.0% |
6 May 2010 | Gareth Johnson (Cons) John Adams (Lab) James Willis (Libdem) Gary Rogers (English Dem) Richard Palmer (UKIP) Stephane Tindame (Ind) Ernie Crockford (Fancy Dress) | 24,428 13,809 7,361 2,178 1,842 264 207 | 48.8% 27.6% 14.7% 4.3% 3.7% 0.5% 0.4% | 65.7% | Cons Gain Maj 10,628 Swing Lab>C 11.6% |
7 May 2015 | Gareth Johnson (Cons) Simon Thomson (Lab) Elizabeth Jones (UKIP) Simon Beard (Libdem) Andy Blatchford (Green) Steve Uncles (English Dem) | 25,870 13,325 10,434 1,454 1,324 211 | 49.0% 25.4% 19.9% 2.8% 2.5% 0.4% | 68.4% | Cons Hold Maj 12,345 Swing Lab>C 1.2% |
8 Jun 2017 | Gareth Johnson (Cons) Bachchu Kaini (Lab) Ben Fryer (UKIP) Simon Beard (Libdem) Andrew Blatchford (Green) Ola Adewunmi (Ind) | 31,210 18,024 2,544 1,428 807 211 | 57.6% 33.2% 4.7% 2.6% 1.5% 0.4% | 69.8% | Cons Hold Maj 13,186 Swing Lab>C 0.4% |
12 Dec 2019 | Gareth Johnson (Cons) Sacha Gosine (Lab) Kyle Marsh (Lib Dem) Mark Lindop (Green) | 34,006 14,846 3,736 1,435 | 62.9% 27.5% 6.9% 2.7% | 65.7% | Cons Hold Maj 19,160 Swing Lab>C 5.5% |
The Sixth Periodic and the 2023 Boundary Reviews
Sixth Boundary Review (2010-20)
The Conservative government in 2010 passed a law to reduce the the number of constituencies nationwide from 650 to 600 (strangely enough commentators noted that the main beneficiaries of doing this would be the Conservatives themselves!) Needless to say this has the effect of increasing the electoral quota for each seat (that is the number electors per MP). While the existing Dartford seat met the quota, some of the surrounding seats did not, this led the Boundary Commission to propose moving Hartley into an expanded Gravesend seat.
The new boundaries were due to come into force in 2013, but parliament decided to postpone the review. It recommenced in 2016 and the new review was completed in 2018. However these proposals were not put before Parliament and in 2020 the Government decided to abandon this review altogether and revert to 650 constituencies.
The 2023 Review
By the time this review commenced there were significant population changes. As a result Kent was gain one new MP to make the number 18. The rapid growth of Dartford meant that the constituency would be above the electoral quota and so had to be made smaller. As Gravesham was within the quota and co-terminous with the borough, the Commission took an early decision that its borders must not be changed. Dartford is bordered on two other sides by different regions (London and East of England) and it is not permissible to cross regional boundaries when drawing up constituencies. This substantially reduced the room for manoevure for changes to the Dartford constituency. As a result Hartley (previously Dartford) and New Ash Green (previously Sevenoaks) were moved into Tonbridge constituency - something none of the 38 responses from Hartley and New Ash Green supported (other than one response who said the only thing that can be said for it is that at least Hartley and New Ash Green would be in the same constituency in future. Longfield is to remain in Dartford Constituency.
The loss of strongly Conservative wards Hartley & Hodsoll Street, and Wilmington, Sutton at Hone & Hawley has tilted the seat a little bit to Labour. If the 2019 election had been fought on these boundaries, it is thought the Conservative majority would have fallen from 19,160 to 14,704.
The 2024 General Election
At present Dartford is the country's official "bellweather" seat, that is the seat with the longest record of going with the winning party, in Dartford's case since 1964. The previous bellweather was Gravesham which had gone with the winning party since 1955 but returned a Conservative in 2005, when Labour won the national election. However the seat has drifted in the blue direction in recent years. Even with the favourable boundary changes Labour need nearly a 16% swing to take the seat which places it 186th on Labour's target list, when Labour need to win 121 seats and a swing of 12.7% to have a majority of one in the House of Commons. So Labour can comfortably win the election and not take Dartford.
Background Reading
History
of Parliament website (with a few gaps, gives a list of MPs
and election results where known from 1386 to 1832)